The declining shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC), the world’s most prominent movie chain, might be appealing to value investors. AMC stock has been continuously falling for several months. It has lost around 55%, tumbling from its recent peak of $51.69 on September 13, 2022. The share is traded at 20.66 USD -2.06 (-9.07%) as of January 14, 2022. AMC stock forecast is trending on the internet.
The stock has fallen 16% in 2022 and nearly 40% over the last three months, despite record box office sales for the latest Marvel & Sony Pictures’ Spider-Man movie. AMC documented record sales during the pre-Christmas period, which will accrue to Q4 earning statements, and AMC’s cash flow may help push up AMC stock.
On December 21, 2021, AMC sold more than two million tickets for Spider-Man No Way Home, and on December 22, 2021, the company set several records in the U.S with the opening of the movie. It was the largest single-day record since Christmas Festivities 2019. The company makes a lot of money from tickets and food & beverage sales on the premises. Q4 earnings will show a good cash flow to the company.
Where AMC Stock Stands
Though critics anticipate negative earnings per share (EPS) for the AMC stock forecast today, it does not mean that the company will have negative free cash flow (FCF). As per seven analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, the Q4 2021 revenue is anticipated at $2.49 billion, and for AMC stock forecast 2022, they expect $4.57 billion – 83.5% higher than 2021!.
An excellent method to value AMC stock is an FCF yield metric. It is expected that for Q4 2022, AMC will document substantial amounts of FCF. FCF margin may rise to a minimum of 10% by Q4 2022 ($457 million).
Let us evaluate AMC stock with a 3% FCF yield. The stock has a target market value of $15.23 billion with a 3% FCF yield ($457 million divided by 3%). It makes AMC Entertainment’s market capitalization $11.69 billion. Thus, with a 3% FCF yield metric, the stock has an upside of a minimum of 30% ($15.23b/$11.69b-1). If a 2% FCF yield is used, the AMC stock will have a higher upside.
Even if the stock takes two years to work out in this way, the average annual return will be 39.8% annually. Hence, AMC entertainment stock forecast 2025 looks like a pretty good bargain in the future.A long-term increase is expected per the wallet investor’s AMC Stock forecast.
Its stock analysts forecast that there will be a positive trend in the future for the AMC shares, and it might be good for long-term investment gains. It recommends the stock to add to your portfolio with a positive outlook. With a long-term investment, the revenue is expected to be around 440%. If you invest $100, it may be up to $540.54 in 3- 5 years, as per its AMC stock forecast 2025.
Q3 revenue of the company has risen to $425.1 million. It was $62.9 million in the same quarter of the last year. There is an increase in its food and beverage sales also – $265 million from last year’s $29 million.
Its diluted EPS is -0.44 per share.
There is also an increase in its food and beverage sales – $265 million from last year’s $29 million.
What Supported AMC Stock in 2021
AMC surfed the wave of “meme stock” trading in the first week of June 2021 and reached an all-time high of $72.62. It was just breathtaking – from $2 price in January 2021 to $72.62 within six months.
The company sold 8.5 million new shares to Mudrick Capitals that increased trading in the stock. The company managed to get $230.5 million through the sale. The company declared to use that capital for theater development.
The company’s program – AMC investors connect – in June. It was dedicated to turning shareholders into customers and taking advantage of unseen rallies.
The rise in September 2021 was ambiguous to the health of the business because year-on-year sales at AMC were flat in the Q1 and Q2 of 2021. The stock was actually overpriced (3100%) due to the involvement of retail traders who kept buying AMC stocks to drive this increase.
COVID period has already been a struggling period, and now the Omicron variant will continue with struggle and major threats of losses. There seems to be an even tougher future ahead. The AMC stock forecast by many analysts indicates that it seems hard for the business to record a profit after losing $1.2 billion in past quarters in 2021. Some AMC stock forecasts show that CEO’s stake sale is also a testament to the fact that the stock is quite overpriced.
The stock has been trading lower for five consecutive months. Here is how the AMC has coped lately:
- 19% loss in September 2021
- 7% loss in October
- 4% loss in November
- 20% loss in December
- 16% loss in January
The stock will have to triple to get back on track. Arguments are that hedge funds and short-sellers would lower participation.
The Balance Sheet
To survive in the pandemic, as all of AMC’s screens are shuttered, the management has raised money to run the company. However, it has placed the company’s balance sheet in jeopardy with $5.4 billion in long-term debt. It will cost the business millions of dollars due to high interest every year, and at the time of paying principal, it may be unlikely to have the required funds. Again it may require a loan to pay off the debt. In Q3 2021, the company had $1.6 billion in the bank account, which may likely decline further in the near future.
|Ex-Dividend Date||March 6, 2020|
|52 Week Range||2.57 – 72.62|
Momentum Summary – AMC Stock Forecast
|Performance vs. NASDAQ||Lower|
|Social Media Sentiment||-ve|
CEO Sells Stake for the Sake of Retirement Planning
- AMC CEO Adam Aron sold 625,000 shares this week on 11th January at a valuation of $25 million. As per the news reports, he plans to sell more shares soon under a selling program filed with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). As a consequence of the news, AMC shares fell 4% on the very next day to close at $38.29 – an 8-month low.
- Adam Aron, 67, has a stake of 400,000 unrestricted shares and 3.3 million shares of unvested restricted stocks. For the next sale, Aron will have to wait.
- Aron says that prudent planning suggests diversifying his assets due to potentially increasing capital gains tax rates that will be transferred to the heirs.
Crypto Payments Starts for AMC
AMC is legitimately capitalizing on its patrons. AMC has joined the crypto bandwagon, and customers can pay via Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Ether. It can add more cryptocurrencies to the list. It is a new digital initiative to keep people purchasing entry tickets. Aron has made an intelligent move to capitalize on AMC’s status as a meme stock. It is essentially marketing to its millions of retail investors to keep stakeholders hopeful despite the lower sales.
About the Company
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. headquartered in Leawood, Kansas is involved in the theater exhibition business through its subsidiaries globally. The company, established in 1920, has more than 1000 theaters and 10,700 screens across the globe.
The AMC stock forecast indicates that the share appears to be very bleak, at least in the short term, as the company’s financial situation is unstable. According to most AMC stock forecasts, it will be hard for the company to defend the unreasonably high share price with higher profits. Prudent investors may steer clear of this stock in the short run and consider buying low with a long-term perspective. Let us be positive for the next AMC stock forecast.
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